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Lyle Wilkinson of DIY Portfolio Management, invites you to reprint this article in your publication, ezine, or on your website.

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    Retirement Planning Wars
    Copyright © 2005, Lyle Wilkinson

    Through our working lifetime, saving forces battle the ‘live 
    life’ forces.  In our family sometimes saving won and sometimes 
    spending won.  As retirement approached we had equity in our 
    home, a small nest egg, and no consumer debt.
    
    Through our working lifetime, the conservative asset allocation 
    forces battled the aggressive asset allocation forces.  In our 
    family, we mostly allocated and diversified with random financial 
    transactions.  There was no written or even spoken plan. 
    Individual transactions were analyzed as discrete events loomed, 
    not as part of a total plan.  Thankfully we weren’t living beyond 
    our means or wildly aggressive investors.  As retirement 
    approached our nest egg was split 50/50 between common stock and 
    money market funds.
    
    Finally, I retired and only then began studying our financial 
    life from a big picture point of view.  
    
    Most of my early reading reinforced the common perception that 
    asset allocation between asset classes reduces risk.  The theory 
    is that prices in different asset classes inflate and deflate at 
    different rates.  Rising bond prices might offset falling stock 
    prices.  Rising real estate prices might offset falling commodity 
    prices.  One of the champions of asset allocation is Burton G. 
    Malkiel, PhD.   In A Random Walk Down Wall Street he popularized 
    a life-cycle approach to asset allocation.  He proposed that 
    retirees should shift more of their nest egg into bonds or other 
    fixed income securities.  The theory is that when salaries/wages 
    stop and projected years to live decrease we can tolerate less 
    risk. 
    
    Along the way I started looking at ways to access the equity in 
    our home.  I looked at reverse mortgages and discovered what 
    reverses is the mortgage balance.  In a conventional mortgage the 
    balance decreases with each payment you make to the bank.  With a 
    reverse mortgage the balance increases with each payment the bank 
    makes to you.  The balance grows, but at some point the bank has 
    to be paid off.  Often cash is raised to pay the bank by selling 
    the home.  
    
    Jeremy Siegel, PhD. studied more than 200 years of US stock 
    market data.  He determined on average the stock market returns a 
    real return of 6.8% per year.  He found that on average the stock 
    market out yields other equity classes, and says “stocks remain 
    the best bet in the long run for US investors.”
    
    In mid 2002, these ideas were swirling around in my retired head. 
    Diversifying asset classes reduces risk.  Stock market has 
    greatest average return.  Interest rates, mortgage rates are at a 
    fifty year low.  I also knew from financial theory that pursuit 
    of greater return requires acceptance of more risk.  Conversely, 
    avoidance of risk limits return.  Some Excel spreadsheets with 
    random number generators convinced me that the average annual 
    draw from a retirement nestegg 100% in equities would exceed that 
    of any mix of bonds and equities.  Average draw would be more, 
    but in individual years the draws possible for a bond portfolio 
    are sometimes greater.
    
    In July of 2002, we refinanced our mortgage and invested the 
    proceeds in the stock market.  The account is also my checking 
    account.  The plan was to keep the account balance at about the 
    mortgage balance.  The balance would be maintained by spending 
    less if the account fell below the mortgage, and spending more if 
    the account climbed above the mortgage.  The account started with 
    $128,175.86.  Since then I’ve withdrawn $34,921.17 more than I 
    have deposited, the investment value has grown by $35,782.19 and 
    the account is at $129,036.87.  The withdrawals include all 
    interest and principle payments and closing cost for the first 
    refinance and for a second refinance along the way.  The mortgage 
    balance is $127,766.97.  
    
    This strategy is working for us.  I like the idea of staying 
    flexible, slowing spending when the market is down and spending 
    more when the market is up.  Last year I spent $10,000 on 
    reflooring and painting our condo.  This year I’m spending the 
    same on a 1990 Mustang Convertible.  These are flexible projects. 
    The market gave a little extra so we spent it.  This strategy is 
    probably not appropriate for everyone.  There is always the 
    chance that a bad year in the market will coincide with large 
    inflexible expense.
    
    In retrospect, I wish I had figured out at the start of my 
    working life that diligent investment into a diversified equity 
    portfolio would have made me wealthy.  I wish I’d figured out 
    borrowing for an investment was probably a better use of credit 
    than borrowing for a new car.  But, when you are in your 
    twenties, who thinks deferred consumption is good.  I’m happy now 
    with more than 100% of my equity in the stock market.
    
    In a future article I’ll discuss my Excel retirement draw models, 
    and point out a website that goes far beyond.  The website lets 
    you play with asset allocation, funding amounts, and your 
    expected longevity to see what your monthly withdrawal will be. 
    



    Writer's Resource Box:
    Lyle Wilkinson, investor, trader, author, MBA
    Helps individuals learn to self direct their stock portfolios.
    Book, e-book, PowerPoint "DIY Portfolio Management”
    http://www.diyportfoliomanagement.com
    mailto:joe@diyportfoliomanagement.com




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