A day doesn't pass when a self-anointed talking head doesn't make
solemn noises of "California Real Estate bubble".
I'm a hands on Realtor in Pleasanton, California, San Ramon, and
Danville. We are the epicenter of paradise, 20 minutes east of
San Francisco. Mount Diablo, Spanish for devil, looms 3500 feet
over our towns along famous Freeway 680.
Have you ever been to Pleasanton, California, San Ramon,
Danville? The bubble-speakers, surely, have not. Here you find
yourself right smack in the middle of the nation's entrepreneur
valley, where people speak with their wallet. Consequently,
everything I say brings financial consequences.
Economics 101 teaches that value and price are determined by
relative scarcity, and these scarcity laws certainly apply to
our corner of paradise.
Suppose, places like Nebraska had our sunny, mild climate,
surrounded by these magnificent hills, the strongest peak skills
job market in the world, the dozens of wineries of the Livermore
Valley, and the 20 minute light rail BART ride to the heart of
the world's most beautiful city, San Francisco. How much would
those Nebraska homes be worth? Reliable sources report that
Nebraska isn't Silicon Valley. Drive out of Omaha in any
direction, you won't be dining at the Ahwahnee lodge at Yosemite,
nor will you be hitting the slopes at Tahoe, or be swimming with
the whales and dolphins at Stinson Beach. OK, there's still
Denny's, but that makes my un-bubble point. Denny's isn't
Pleasanton, California, or Danville, or San Ramon. My wallet
whispers that the Real Estate bubble is in Nebraska.
What is the meaning of Real Estate "bubble"? Hot air is the main
ingredient, as in hot air balloon. The bubble speakers clearly
insinuate "artificially" high prices, fueled by speculators,
signaling an all but certain crash correction, as in a game of
monopoly. These guys need to ease up on those Denny's burgers,
rings, fries, and creamy desserts. That clogs anybody's analytic
powers. Here is a clear fact.
The Washington Post's Joel Garreau, in his eye opening book, THE
NINE NATIONS OF NORTH AMERICA correctly identifies edge cities
like Pleasanton, California, Danville, San Ramon, near the
epicenter of "EcoTopia", the Pacific Rim "nation" that is
propelling California, the United States, the world, into the
twenty second century, and perhaps, the twenty third, as well.
Garreau wrote his book in 1981. I couldn't put it down. My family
and I caught the wave. In 1985 we sold our mansion-like home in
Ridgewood, New Jersey. The 3000 mile exodus to the Golden Land
of No Limits comprised 4 children, husband, grand piano and
Mercedes. We never looked back.
Good bye the pious wisdom of tradition, hello ignition, land
of the Rule Breakers, the nut-jobs, dropouts, UC Berkeley,
University of San Francisco, Stanford, and misfits who create
backyard diversions like Genentech, Google, eBay, iPod, the
Grateful Dead, Lockheed, and Oracle. Out here, quality of life
competes with vested stock options, as Job One.
The resultant home values are reflected in the prices of the
homes. It isn't so much that prices are "high"; it is that the
value of the quality of life in Pleasanton, California, Danville,
San Ramon is exceptional. We all speak with our wallets. Last
week I listed a nearby home in Alamo, California, for a shade
under two million. It sold within ten days.
I maintain an informational website that provides, free of
charge, the critical tools that every home seller, or, buyer,
would want, irrespective of who represents them. You can look
at it right here: http://www.judithbrickman.com/
Back to our paradise corridor. The Real Estate dollars that are
spent here are the dollars of Rule Breakers, entrepreneurial
businessmen, executives, and scientists who help to provide the
cures, the communications, the entertainment, and the educational
infrastructure that is leading mankind to the greatest wealth,
and life expectancy in history. No bubble. No dumb money. I'm the
Realtor; I deal in stubborn facts. The Rule Breakers flock to
Pleasanton, Danville, San Ramon for the quality of life that is
constantly regenerated. Look at the sophistication of adjacent
Walnut Creek. Here is Trump, without the pump.
What is the future price trend of Real Estate in Pleasanton,
Danville, San Ramon, and the adjacent cities of the Diablo
Dougherty Valley? That depends on whether you think that our
greatest medical breakthroughs are behind us, or yet to burst
on to the scene. Whether we have achieved the peak of our
communication capability, or whether present day connectivity
is in its smoke signal infancy.
As I said, we all speak with our wallets. Look at your stock
portfolio, that's the sharpest snapshot of your vision of the
future. The latest fashion-speak, along with "bubble" is of a
"flat" stock market. Flat for whom? For the flat thinker? My
portfolio is up 29% since the first of the year. Different
visions, different wallet actions, different results, indeed,
different worlds.
Three years ago we helped our daughter to purchase her $350,000
condo. She is just now refinancing. The bank reappraised it at
$690,000. She just got engaged, and they are planning to purchase
a new home to launch the marriage.
Is she selling her condo? Certainly not! No bubble. What would
happen if she were to put the condo on the market? You would see
a bidding contest by, perhaps, six to eight qualified buyers.
Demand exceeds supply.
What does our daughter, and these bidders know, that the
bubblespeak gurus do not? One in three legal immigrants to this
country make a beeline to California. We are the magnet for the
very best, and brightest Rule Breakers. They all resonate to the
same mantra, in life, pick the winners, and cut the losers,
paradise is a pretty safe store of value. Sorry, Omaha.
The answer is, that in our slice of the nation, Pleasanton,
Danville, San Ramon, and the adjacent cities of the Diablo
/Dougherty Valley, the only bubbling that is evident is the
bubbling of ideas, entrepreneurial ingenuity, and, living life to
the fullest. Diablo Dougherty Valley, CA, is truly the valley of
the winners.
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